Strong Air NZ profit growth predicted
GOOD FLIGHT: Air New Zealand has reported it carried 990,000 passengers in January, up 5.4 per cent on the same month last year.
Air New Zealand is expected to report strong profit improvement for the half year to December tomorrow as more passengers board its planes and yields rise.
But analysts say the second half of the financial year will be tougher because of the recent spike in fuel costs and competition intensifies.
Goldman Sachs JBWere aviation analyst Marcus Curley is picking a normalised profit, which strips out hedging effects, of $110 million, up from $96m for the same time a year earlier.
"That has been driven by good load factor increases, and pretty good yields," Mr Curley said.
But in a tale of two halves, the second six months to June 30 would be more of a struggle because of the sharp increase in the cost of jet fuel in the past two months and the substantial increase in competition from long-haul Asian airlines during the next few months, Mr Curley said.
While passengers numbers were improving, Air New Zealand's fortunes depended on its ability to lift yields and limit cost increases, Mr Curley said.
"There might be a fairly sharp reality check in the next six months."
Forsyth Barr analyst Rob Mercer was more bullish tipping normalised profits to gain 27 per cent to $122m on the back of a 9 per cent increase in revenue and the stronger New Zealand dollar reducing depreciation and rental costs.
Air New Zealand should be able to provide a positive medium-to-long-term outlook as it implemented a new fleet of Boeing 777-300 long-haul and Airbus A320 domestic aircraft, Mr Mercer said.
Earnings in the second half of the financial year would be lower than the first half, "but are set for a substantial increase in 2012 financial year", Mr Mercer said.
The airline would benefit from the Rugby World Cup later this year, the implementation of the strategic alliance with Virgin Blue and higher earnings from its domestic network after the departure of Pacific Blue.
But the benefits would be dampened with rising fuel costs, expected to be up 19 per cent to $522m in the first half and the substantial increase in capacity as the new aircraft entered service.
Air New Zealand has reported it carried 990,000 passengers in January, 5.4 per cent more than for the same month last year and group-wide yields for the financial year to date were up 2.4 per cent.
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